Apprenticeship Pipeline Could Dry Up by 2027, Hair Consortium Warns

The British Hair Consortium is pressing Chancellor Rachel Reeves to act in or before her 26 March spring forecast after a CBI Economics report projected UK salons could stop taking on apprentices by 2027, with direct stylists' employment forecast to collapse 93% by 2030.

The consortium, which represents 50,000 hairdressing professionals, has told ministers the current system poses an "existential crisis" for the trade.

What is pushing salons off the apprentice model?

Salons pay VAT at 20% on services, the same rate as most UK businesses. Because hairdressing is labour-intensive and salons sell limited retail, operators recover less of that VAT than product-led businesses, the consortium argues.

So an increasing number of salons are renting out chairs to self-employed stylists rather than taking on PAYE staff. That shift changes who foots the apprenticeship bill.

Jezz Ellis, head of operations for the Saks salon chain, said the sector faces a "perfect storm."

"You've got the VAT issue which has always been difficult," Ellis said. "And with National Insurance going up and a national minimum wage increase, it's making it very difficult for those salons to increase their prices to meet the extra costs. All of those things added together is just crippling a lot of salons."

What does the CBI Economics report actually say?

The report is blunt. Headline findings:

• By 2027, "there may be no new apprenticeships offered"
• Direct employment could fall 93% by 2030
• Chair-rental growth continues to hollow out the salary base that traditionally funds Level 2 and Level 3 training

For a working salon, the math translates directly: fewer employed juniors means fewer hands per booked-out stylist, longer client waiting lists and downward pressure on service prices in a category where labour is the dominant cost line.

Why does the employment model matter for apprentices?

Self-employed chair renters follow salon rules and rota patterns but draw no employer-side sick pay, maternity pay or pension contributions. That cost shift lands on the worker and, the consortium argues, on the public purse, while shrinking the pool of paid junior roles that route school leavers into the trade.

Who is on the line?

Alex Ritchie, 22, sits in the early phase of her apprenticeship at a Darlington, County Durham, salon and wants one day to own her own business.

"You can't run a salon without having apprentices," she said. "They are your main support when you're doing clients."

"It will have a massive impact on how many clients salons can take," Ritchie added.

Adam Hussain is working towards his Level 2 qualification and sees the trade as his long-term plan.

"Without this apprenticeship, I wouldn't be where I am today," he said. "Apprenticeships are really good — you get paid to learn, you're learning on the job, it's a very hands-on career."

What has the government done so far?

The Treasury and Department for Business and Trade did not respond to BBC Newsbeat's request for comment. The Department for Education last week announced changes letting employers decide whether a Maths and English qualification is required for some apprenticeships. The consortium welcomes the flexibility but says the spending-power fix has to come from the Chancellor.

What to watch next

The 26 March spring forecast is the next data point. If the Chancellor declines to revisit VAT or National Insurance treatment for service-sector employers, the CBI's 93% direct-employment contraction becomes the working assumption for 2030.